Dissolving real estate inventory and promoting the stable and healthy development of the industry is one of the hotspots of continuous attention and research from all walks of life. In December 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference made "resolving real estate inventory" one of the five major tasks of economic work in 2016. Since then, real estate inventory has become a matter of great concern to all sectors of society.
In a sense, the trend of destocking is the real estate market vane.
Stop "destocking" the first shot fired
Since the beginning of this year, the three words destocking have disappeared out of thin air, and in the first half of the year, I have not heard any sound about real estate destocking at several important political and economic work conferences in the country.
On August 24, the Hohhot Housing Security and Housing Administration issued the notice "Our city will take multiple measures to regulate housing prices to stabilize the real estate market", proposing that "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations" as the overall goal of real estate regulation, it is proposed to take measures to stabilize the real estate market. A number of measures have been taken to regulate housing prices and stabilize the real estate market. The notice made it clear that the control measures for real estate destocking will be completely stopped, becoming the first city to shout "stop destocking" in this round of real estate regulation. Four days later, on August 28, the Changchun Municipal Government took the lead in canceling the monetization resettlement house purchase incentive policy, encouraging qualified shantytown renovation projects to build a certain number of resettlement houses. It is worth noting that in late June 4 years ago, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia was also the first city in the country to cancel the 3-year-old property market purchase restriction policy, which kicked off the destocking of the property market.
Since 2017, housing prices in Hohhot have been rising. In July 2018, the sales price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in Hohhot increased by 2.4% month-on-month and 11.8% year-on-year. Since 2016, in accordance with relevant national policies, Hohhot has carried out real estate destocking work, and the supply of housing land is relatively small. According to the data provided by the land department, the city's housing land supply in the past three years has been less than 2,000 mu, resulting in the listing of houses for sale in the past two years. In addition, Hohhot has implemented shanty town renovations for three years, with a total of 30,311 households resettled, with an area of 6.06 million square meters requisitioned and demolished. In accordance with the principle of “relocation first, requisition and demolition later”, about 95% of shanty towns have been renovated with currency. Compensation and resettlement have further released the purchasing power of the market, which has resulted in a rapid increase in housing prices in Hohhot since last year. At the same time, the introduction of talent plans, the transfer of capital and labor to cities has led to a large demand market, and the proportion of improved housing and just-needed housing has gradually increased; the proportion of fully furnished housing in the market has increased from 15% to 30%, and urban education, medical care The improvement of public service resources and supporting facilities such as transportation, transportation, etc. is also a factor leading to the rise in housing prices.
Real estate supply and demand structure reversed
Shen Zhengchao, president of the Shanghai Real Estate Economics Association, believes that the inventory problem is an important issue that needs to be paid attention to in real estate theoretical research, and its essence is the relationship between supply and demand.
A set of data on new residential construction and sales area can profoundly reflect the fundamentals of China's real estate, that is, the supply and demand of the total real estate market.
We can clearly see from the data in the above figure: the 2011-2014 and 2015-2017 start-to-sales ratio data formed a sharp contrast. From 2011 to 2014, the real estate inventory accumulated rapidly, and many houses were built but few were bought. This is also the reason for the destocking of real estate in those years. From January to May this year, the newly started residential construction area was 530 million square meters, while the sales area of residential commercial housing was 490 million square meters. This is a very big change, which reflects that in 2018, China's real estate changed the residential sales area in the past three years. Greater than the fundamentals of newly started area.
In other words, starting in 2018, Chinese housing has undergone a huge reversal in the structure of supply and demand!
Around 2014, some third- and fourth-tier cities in my country had too much inventory, and many cities successively introduced destocking measures. With the continuous advancement of the policy, the destocking task of some cities with large inventory in the past and some third- and fourth-tier hotspot cities has been basically completed. Therefore, it is necessary to completely stop real estate destocking in these cities.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that looking at the national real estate market, housing prices in some cities have risen to varying degrees, mainly due to insufficient supply. Therefore, it is now time to replenish inventory. These cities should appropriately expand supply to stabilize the rising trend of housing prices.
Land Auctions Prove Property Market Turning
In addition to the gradual end of destocking, another recent change in the property market is the passing, passing, and passing again! Land auctions have become the best evidence for the turnaround in the property market.
The Bureau of Land and Resources, which is in charge of land management, has always been filled with silent gunpowder smoke in previous years, but this year it was peaceful. Shanghai passed the auction, Hangzhou cancelled the sale, no one cared about the golden land in Taiyuan, and the land price in Xiamen was cut in half...
From the first-tier to the second-tier, from the north to the south, land auctions have become commonplace. According to data, in the first seven months of 2018, there were 796 unsold land auctions across the country, including 13 unsold auctions in first-tier cities, 154 unsold auctions in second-tier cities, and 629 unsold auctions in third- and fourth-tier cities. If you count the passed-in auction data in various places in August, more than 800 land auctions have passed in this year. In addition, it is worth noting that this year's land auctions have frequently refreshed past records, and first-tier cities have set new records since 2012; and the total number of 800 land auctions this year has refreshed the record since 2014. The historical peak has more than doubled. You know, in 2014, there were only 345 land auctions.
Abandoned land auctions are not only a reflection of the cooling of the market, but also a signal bomb for the property market to turn.
This wave of large-scale land auctions is largely due to the high debt of real estate companies. Based on profit considerations, they will undoubtedly be more cautious. However, local governments still sell land according to the old model. Raise the reserve price for land auctions.
New idea of "destocking"
A few days ago, representatives of some state-owned real estate enterprises said that the problem of "destocking" can be actively linked to the policy management of stock houses and stock land. In other words, for some houses with relatively large inventory, in addition to paying attention to the concept of "de-ification", in fact, the concept of "transformation" can also be considered. If the policy is connected and opened up in this regard, the problem of "destocking" will become easier to solve. For example, major cities across the country are actively promoting the reform of the rental market. For this type of rental market, you can also pay attention to the inventory of real estate. In view of the characteristics of a relatively long construction cycle for new houses and a relatively short renovation cycle for existing properties, such excess housing stock can be purchased and stored for reconstruction to form more rental housing stock.
On the other hand, in recent years, under the tide of monetization and resettlement of shantytowns, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have also risen. Under the policy of city-specific policies, the policy focus of real estate destocking in 2017 was the third- and fourth-tier cities. Many third- and fourth-tier cities experienced a sharp rise in housing prices, which stimulated the prosperity of the land market in these cities. Land sales in fourth-tier cities have more than tripled.
The monetization of shantytown reform was once regarded as one of the more effective ways to destock real estate. Xia Lei, deputy dean and chief real estate analyst of Evergrande Research Institute, pointed out that from 2016 to 2017, third- and fourth-tier cities used shantytown reforms to monetize their inventories, and many cities continued to reduce their inventories, and even some of them experienced rising housing prices. In the larger case, the monetization of shed reforms and resettlement in these cities is about to complete the historical mission of destocking.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also pointed out that where there is insufficient inventory of commercial housing and there is a great pressure on rising house prices, the shantytown reform and resettlement policies should be adjusted in a targeted and timely manner, and more new shantytown reform and resettlement houses should be adopted; In local areas, we can continue to promote the monetized resettlement of shantytowns. In August last year, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also issued a document clarifying that cities and counties with a commercial housing digestion cycle of less than 15 months should control the proportion of shantytowns to be converted into monetary resettlement and adopt more new resettlement housing.
Yin Zhongli, director of the Real Estate Research Center of the Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in an article at the end of June that the real estate market continued to slump around 2014, and the change from physical resettlement to monetized resettlement can stimulate market demand. However, the characteristics of the real estate market have determined that the real estate destocking policy can only be a short-term expedient measure and should not be used for a long time. Judging from the current situation, housing prices in some cities have risen too much, and the negative impact of the real estate destocking policy has begun to appear. The real estate destocking policy, including the monetization of shantytown reform, should be gradually withdrawn.
-转自新玻网
