Today is, without a doubt, a pivotal day.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection has announced that the United States will impose additional levies on Chinese goods worth $34 billion in 818 categories on the first list from July 6, local time (noon on the 6th, Beijing time). 25% import duty. In response, China will also impose a 25% import tariff on U.S. products of the same size on the same day.
Yesterday, at a press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said, "The US has provoked this trade war, and we are reluctant to fight it, but in order to safeguard the interests of the country and the people, it has to beat". Gao Feng emphasized, but China will never shoot the first shot. If the U.S. imposes taxation measures, China will be forced to take countermeasures, and China will never bow its head in the face of threats and blackmail. "The U.S. taxation is firing on the world and on itself." Gao Feng responded yesterday to the possible impact of the trade war provoked by the U.S. on U.S. companies in China, "We will continue to evaluate and work hard to help companies alleviate possible impact.”
Jiang Xingchun, director of the Soochow Futures Research Institute, said that the official increase in tariffs means an escalation of Sino-US trade frictions. As far as current short-term prices are concerned, the price drop in the past two weeks has fully reflected the market's concerns about trade frictions, but How it will play out next depends more on whether the trade friction will further escalate or cool down, and how market sentiment will change. It can only be said that at present, the weakness shows no signs of changing. But in the medium term, we are not overly pessimistic. First of all, the country has begun to take action to hedge the risk of Sino-US trade friction. Second, from the perspective of the focus of the policy, there are signs of tilting towards small, medium and micro enterprises. These types of enterprises are the most market-oriented in the real economy. The most affected category. If the vitality of small and micro enterprises is stimulated, it will undoubtedly boost the real economy.
Ma Jun, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China and director of the Center for Finance and Development at Tsinghua University, said the $50 billion trade war between China and the United States would have limited impact on China's economy. The US$50 billion trade war has been discussed by the market for more than two months, and the impact on the economy, industries and companies has basically been digested, and some have even been overinterpreted. The official start of the Sino-US trade war on the 6th may not have much impact on the capital market and exchange rate. In addition, for some industries that have been relatively greatly affected, relevant parties will also consider necessary hedging measures to reduce the impact of the trade war.
Looking at the glass industry, how about those areas that may be affected?
Ultra-thin glass is the key core material required by the electronic information display industry. Its research and development process requires a high degree of multi-disciplinary and multi-field composite integration. The process technology is complex and the production is difficult. The core technology has long been monopolized by a few companies in the United States and Japan. , resulting in a serious lack of key links in my country's optoelectronic display industry chain, industrial development has been controlled by others for a long time, and product prices have remained high all year round. However, in April, the 0.12mm ultra-thin electronic touch glass was successfully launched in Bengbu CNBM Information Display Materials Co., Ltd., which means that my country has mastered the core technology, broke the monopoly, and industrial development can no longer be controlled by others. Li Zhiming, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the Bengbu Institute of Glass, once said that my country has introduced hundreds of display panel production lines in recent years. In the past, all ultra-thin glass substrates were imported from the United States and Japan for processing. If there is a trade war, our hundreds of production lines will be There is a danger of total paralysis. "But we are not afraid now, because we are not only the international leader in ultra-thin glass technology, but also the international leading manufacturing capacity, and the production cost and unit energy consumption are lower than international similar products, and we have strong competitiveness."
In the industry, except for a few companies such as Fuyao Glass, which have established factories in the United States, most of them adopt the method of export trade. If a trade war starts, these companies may not be able to avoid suffering. As a leader in the industry, Fuyao Glass CFO Chen Xiangming once said about the possible impact of the Sino-US trade war on the company. At present, the trade penetration rate between the two countries is very high, and a large-scale trade war is unlikely. The establishment of the company's US base has created a set of "combination punches" with domestic linkages, and its attitude towards the trade war is also relatively calm. Cao Dewang also pointed out, "Since the United States is doing business with us, firstly, there is demand, and secondly, when production cannot be satisfied, it will buy things from us instead of doing relief. I believe that as long as there is demand, there is a certain cost. , measures like raising taxes are definitely not a good idea.”
In the final analysis, there is no winner in a trade war. Regardless of whether it will really start, companies must learn to plan ahead, hold the core technology in their own hands, and not become a "handle" for others to sanction them, so as to have enough confidence to deal with it. changes in the environment.
-转自新玻网
